Dec. 22, 2011 - National weather patterns have big implications in Texas, and people like Mark Fox, warning and coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service make it their goal to continuously collect data from weather models and other technologies in order to put out the most accurate weather forecast.
Unlike most that are only concerned with what is going on in the sky over their own heads, meteorologists learned long ago that weather patterns have more of a domino effect, meaning the current La Nia pattern is especially important. for Texas, and the rest of the country.
"It is the big picture that really comes into play," Fox said. "Does anybody have any inclining that what goes on in the Eastern Pacific has anything to do with what happens in Texas? It has everything to do with what happens. Just like if you hurt part of your arm, then you are probably going to make up for it with your other arm -- something like that where everything is collected in one-way or another."
At this point, what is occurring in the Pacific is not complementary of what agricultural producers would like to see in the United States.
"There are two things that are classified at the E.L.S.O., the El Nio Southern Oscillation, El Nio, La Nia are probably the ones that you are most likely hearing about on television," Fox said.
Within the patterns of this E.L.S.O. is El Nio, the situation that most Texas growers would rather be affected by.
"With El Nio, this cool water is sinking down, and the warm water should be coming a lot further east," Fox explained. "That causes quite a bit of moisture to be released in the south Pacific, and that moisture eventually makes its way up and causes some wetter-than-normal conditions in the United States, especially the southern portion of the United states and that includes Texas, of course.
"El Nio, we don't have a very cold air that tries to come down into Texas," he continued. "Most of the cold air comes down from Canada and gets shifted off, and New England gets that cold going on. That is the El Nio path."
Rather than the plentiful rain of the El Nio pattern, Texas is regrettably stuck in the La Nia pattern, and from the data collected by meteorologists, it doesn't look like it will be ending anytime soon.
"We have gotten it for the second strait year," Fox said. "Instead of having very warm, Pacific Ocean water going off to the east, that warm water went off to the west. That means we have got our colder than normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific and that eastern moisture is floating up from Australia and coming down and eventually making its way to the surface.
"What that means in Texas, in the southern United States it is not good," he continued. "It becomes very dry and very warm... This is our second year (and) last year in the La Nia conditions, we started with slightly higher than normal temperatures."
So, despite a few harsh winter storms last year and some freezing temperatures, Fox said Texas still saw above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation on average. He and other meteorologist are expecting Texas to experience much the same kind of winter as last year.
"We are right back in La Nia, so we are expecting to be seeing some drier than normal conditions for next year," he said. "It is probably going to be this time next year before we start getting out of this kind of pattern. We are more likely to see above normal temperatures for the next three months and as far as rainfall, well it doesn't look very good."
Texas has received some rain the last few weeks, but according to Fox, looking into the rest of December and going into January and February, less than average precipitation can be expected.
"This looks very similar to what we looked at this time last year," Fox said. "On average, we did end up with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation and a couple or really hard hitting winter storms, and I think that is exactly what we are going to see once again this year."
With an unfavorable forecast, growers are already considering alternatives, including planting different varieties of crops or forages and utilizing other technologies, such as irrigation, in addition to ensuring their agricultural insurance will protect them if the dry, hot weather persists.
