Agricultural advocate dedicated to angling ag policy to Cognress

By MONETTE TAYLOR | South Central Texas Edition

Dr. Joe Outlaw, co-director of Texas A&M's Agriculture and Food Policy Center, is dedicated to helping Congressional committee members see agricultural producers' point of view about policy. -- Staff photo by Taylor

Feb. 3, 2005 - According to Dr. Joe L. Outlaw, co-director of the Agriculture and Food Policy Center for Texas A&M University (TAMU), "... very few people in D.C. care about agriculture, and what they read is what they believe."

Addressing a full house at the recent Western Rice Belt Production Conference, most of the news presented by Outlaw wasn't good. While the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast a record $73.7 billion income for agriculture in 2004, Outlaw said the figure is a "bad number."

Working with the U.S. Congress since 1986, along with TAMU, Outlaw spends much of his time in Washington, D.C., watching and waiting to see what is next for Texans and other ag producers. He analyzes policy alternatives to present to Congressional committee members, in order to help them see what is really happening in agriculture. He said he tries to help them "cull out bad ideas."

It's looking like his job isn't going to get any easier as Congress resumes its work in the nation's capital.

One of the major problems Outlaw projects is the difference in the agendas of President Bush and the members of the Congress. While Bush seems to be more interested in appointments, the reform tax system, Social Security, immigration, tort reform and tax cuts, Congress doesn't completely agree.

Outlaw noted Congress' agenda involves working with the World Trade Organization (WTO), Country of Origin Labeling (COOL), energy bills, milk counter-cycle payments, and trade with Cuba, among others. He noted it doesn't look like much will be agreed upon until after budget numbers are announced by the Congressional Budget Office in March, with a resolution by April 15.

According to Outlaw, it isn't going to be a question of "if" the agriculture budget is cut, but "how to cut it and hurt the least." While he expects cuts in the budget, he also noted that it doesn't look likely that it will affect the 2005 crops.

Sadly enough, Outlaw told those gathered at the conference on Jan. 19 that there is "no big projected rebound coming in long grain rice." Projected international rice prices and loan rates look flat, while he said that wheat and corn crops seem to be alternatives to rice and until 2013, he doesn't see much good in prices for corn, wheat or cotton crops. While there may be some rise in prices, he explained that the rate of inflation will continue to be higher.

"Rice, much like every other crop we produce ... isn't going to be doing that well," said Outlaw.

Although the consumption of rice outpaced last year's production, the situation still looks rather bleak for rice farmers, as well as for other grain producers. What happens in the WTO with the cotton appeal against Brazil will play a part, too, since trading through the WTO is important to all nations involved.

The next Farm Bill that is to be addressed, this summer, and to go into affect in 2006, will not see Texas in the lead, due to the loss of elections in the last primaries. Outlaw predicts producers will see the fruit and vegetable industries "very much at the table," when it comes to dividing up the agricultural "pie."

"The 2002 Farm Bill gave us the biggest pie ever ... but it's only going to shrink by the next Farm Bill," noted Outlaw.

With neither political party wanting to agree with the other side, as in the past, Outlaw said producers should look to the ag leadership in the present Congress, in hopes that something might actually be accomplished.

Outlaw said members to watch include Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota), Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Georgia) and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa). Key players are expected to be Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi), Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) who is chairman of the House Agricultural Sub-committee on General Farm Commodities and Risk Management.

For now, it looks like a "wait and see" what happens in the Budget office baseline, and how seriously Congress and President Bush decide to make cuts in the deficit. Outlaw figures there is a "50 to 95 percent" chance for big cuts in agriculture.

In closing, Outlaw said that the United States is "still the most powerful nation, and won't be told what we can and can't do" by other countries. What happens in our own nation's Congress remains to be seen.