Ban on Texas poultry expected to have little impact on producer prices

By JULIET BRISKIN | Staff writer

March 18, 2004 -- Thus far, Mexico's ban on Texas poultry, by itself, has not substantially effected market prices and James Grimm, executive vice president of the Texas Poultry Federation, does not believe that even a lengthy ban will have much of an impact on producers.

"Our Texas producers have operations in other states," he said, "and they will simply fill that void to Mexico out of those other states. We are certainly waiting for the border to open up to all our products and not only Mexico, but all of the countries that currently have a ban on Texas poultry," he said.

Dr. Parr Rosson, Texas A&M University professor and Extension economist, predicts that if the ban continues to stretch into several months, retail prices will most likely begin to decline, but not substantially.

"Don't expect any large drop, however, because we are moving into the summer cook-out season and the increased demand will support prices to some degree," he explained. "If the ban is lifted, expect to see retail prices hold steady and even increase as we move into summer. This will occur primarily because of low stocks."

According to Rosson, the long-term consequences are less clear. "The United States exports 14 to 15 percent of its poultry production and almost all of that is leg quarters, feet and other edible offal, and some wings. These are products in low demand in U.S. markets, so its certainly positive for the industry to have the international market to absorb those cuts that we don't consider high value."

While the strain of avian influenza discovered in Texas is highly infectious and lethal to poultry, it is not the same strain as the one officials believe is responsible for 22 human deaths in Asia.

Testing at farms within a 10-mile radius of the "index" farm in Gonzales have been negative for other cases of the disease and markets.

"We continue to work closely with the USDA export officials to provide the necessary information to assure that normalization of trading is achieved at the earliest possible date," said Dr. Max Coats of the Texas Animal Health Commission.