Hot and dry
It's a normal summer in Texas, analyst says

By LORI COPE | East Texas Edition

August 2, 2001 -- It's hot, it's dry -- and it's normal for a Texas summer.

"We are definitely in summer's drying period, but that's normal for the end of July and into August," said Brad Smith, fire behavior analyst with the Texas Forest Service, in Longview.

Unlike last year, when July and August saw no rain, most of Northeast Texas has seen some rain this July. "Most saw some rain on the 4th, and around the 15th," Smith said. "The (rains) have been isolated and scattered, but now the rain has shut off."

Smith noted two things that are indicators of how things are going so far this summer -- live fuel moisture and the Keech-Byrum Drought Index (KBDI).

"We have good soil moisture and live fuel moisture right now," he said on Friday, July 27.

But because of the decreased rainfall and increased temperature, July's KBDI level has jumped from 180 to 500.

The drought index is "just part of the puzzle," stressed Smith. The KBDI level is determined from a combination of temperature and rainfall, "but that doesn't tell it all."

Because the summer began with a good live fuel moisture level, conditions are not as severe as they have been in years past.

"Grasses are the best indicator of live fuel moisture," the analyst added. "Visibly there is still some greenness; not a fresh, spring-like green, but it's not cured, not brown ... but it is drying.

"You can see some signs of stress, like where they have cut hay it's not growing back," he said.

But Smith added that because there is still moisture in the live fuel, grass fire occurrences are currently minimum. "I've talked with several folks in Northeast Texas and we're not having but occasional fires, and the fires we are having are easily controlled. They are not getting big, they don't grow fast. When the fire departments can get there quickly, the fires can be controlled easily."

But conditions will change with, or without, the occurrence of rainfall. "If we continue to be without rain, say into the second week of August, we'll step up a level," Smith said. "There will be an increase of fire occurrences and they will get bigger quicker."

But if rainfall occurs, "the grass will absorb it well" and conditions could improve, or at least not worsen.

Smith, who has been with the Texas Forest Service for 20 years, is the first to hold the newly-created Fire Behavior Analyst position in East Texas.

Because most of Northeast Texas is approaching 500 on the KBDI, or is already slightly over, "it's telling you soil moisture is declining and we start to become aware of the problems that could start to happen. ... When this combines with a decreased live fuel moisture, though ours is pretty good right now, that puts both in bad shape and we could see some problems," he concluded.

Commissioners in some Northeast Texas counties have begun considering issuing burning bans or moratoriums to decrease the threat of wildfire.