Country World Archives 2001-2008
U.S. food shortages, agriculture's future hot topics for BET speaker Pat Goggins
By DAVY MOSELEY | Country World East Texas
Imagine going into your local grocery store this weekend, only to see bare shelves and empty pegs.
"This is America," you might exclaim. "We couldn't have a food shortage in the never-ending land of milk and honey."
But, according to Pat Goggins of Billings, Montana, a food shortage in America is possible, and could culminate in the not-so-distant future if production agriculture in the nation continues to demise.
"Food is the next big item that we must preserve," Goggins said at the recent Build East Texas Agriculture Conference in Tyler.
Goggins, originally from Ireland, is the incoming president for the Livestock Marketing Association, owner of the Vermilion Ranch, a livestock auction owner and auctioneer, and publisher of Western Livestock Reporter. He is a qualified voice to speak on American agriculture, and is concerned with issues that are hobbling American agriculture.
Goggins relayed that here in America, the strategic grain reserve is about 35 or 40 days.
The grocery chains and warehouses across America keep about a seven day supply. So if trucks stop rolling, we're out of food, in some of the major cities, in about a week.
Goggins asked those in attendance how many raised a garden at home. A few hands went up.
"That's good. Better than most. Many places I go, no hands. It used to be that everybody had a garden. They had a source of edible food they grew themselves -- just in case," said Goggins.
The speaker stressed that individuals need to think about what they would do if a food shortage did come to America; and to talk about this with their children.
"This is America, but there are some things (about the way this country works) that are absolutely counter-productive to (the promotion of a domestic food supply). And if they don't know this, they won't believe it when a food shortage happens.
Goggins relayed there are less than 2 million Americans in production agriculture today. America's young people are being sent "dangerous signals" about agriculture, according to Goggins. Young people are discouraged that production agriculture is not going anywhere. And if young people are not getting involved in production agriculture, who will produce the nation's food in the years to come?
"I hear so many people say there is no opportunity for young people in agriculture anymore. I hate to hear that. There's more opportunity in agriculture today for young people than I've seen in my life," Goggins said. "Finances are not hard to come by and opportunities are everywhere, but if someone is not willing to work, and thinks they should start at the top with a four-bedroom house and a brand new four-wheel-drive pickup, it probably won't work. Will it?"
Goggins addressed the "silver-haired" beef producers in the audience, "Didn't work for you either, did it?"
He referred to the saying, "from rags, to riches, to rags" in three generations.
"Don't let your kids fall into that. Make them work. Encourage them. Give them what they need, and that's not very much.
"Teach your kids something about hard times. If they don't work the first 16 years of their lives, they're not going to learn. They'll expect five days a week as a hard life, and they'll almost revolt before they give it up. Agriculture can change. it's worth fighting for. Don't let anyone take it away," pleaded Goggins.
At a 1999 FFA State Presidents Conference in Washington D.C., Vice President Al Gore allegedly advised one of the FFA members not to consider a career in production agriculture because those jobs were being sent "overseas." He encouraged the young people to go to college and get a degree so that they can work with agriculture products for the service industry. But, that their best move should likely not be toward production agriculture. The ex-vice president denies the statement according to media sources at the National FFA Organization in Indianapolis, IN.
"When our government and our bureaucracy is telling our youngsters that there's probably not much of a future in production agriculture, doesn't that really hack destiny?" queried Goggins.
"It's this kind of from-the-top down attitude that will, in not too many years, lead to a sure-shot food shortage."
Goggins spoke on trade issues and political policies that are impacting agricultural producers of all kinds, but most especially beef producers.
"Everyone just keeps hoping for another government program to bail them out. All of my productive life, I've seen programs , and sure they've kept things going, but what have they done? That support price the government has put on the product has become the market. It wasn't intended that way, but that's the way it is," commented Goggins.
"People need to get past this idea that the government is there to take care of them from the womb to the tomb," coined Goggins.
"Will Rogers once said, 'Never blame a legislative body for not doing anything. When they don't do anything, they don't hurt anybody.'"
American agriculture is already hurting enough. Goggins commented that the beef cattle market is doing well at the moment, and projected good prices through 2004. This he attributes to so many producers liquidating their herds in recent years.
"The prosperity that you and I are seeing now is because of the hard times our neighbors have had," Goggins said.
Many hardships he attributes to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
There is no way an America producer can compete with countries like Canada and Mexico. These imported cattle can be produced, and shipped, for a fraction of the cost of what American producers can, because of the differences in dollar values, he summarized. This leaves the American cow/calf producer, stocker operator, independent feeder with a superior product targeted at a market already saturated with imported cattle due to NAFTA.
"The biggest industry in Mexico today, I'm told, is that 97 percent of the wealth belongs to 3 percent of the population. The only new wealth Mexico is getting is from sending there people north to work, and bring American dollars back. I'm told the biggest industry in Mexico today is figuring out what to do with those dollars. And this is putting (American) industries, including agriculture, in a tough position."
According to Goggins, there's over 100,000 cattle coming out of Mexico into the United States every month. Last year, well over a million Canadian cattle made their way into the United States.
Another current issue Goggins believes is negatively affecting the prosperity of agriculture from a production standpoint is mandatory price reporting.
"Mandatory price reporting is a bummer. I think there's going to have to be some changes on this quite quickly."
One of Goggins' main concerns is that there has been little input from those actually in the agriculture sector during the establishment of mandatory price reporting.
"It cannot always be coming from the top down," Goggins said of government changes to the industry. "You're flying blind in the middle of a blizzard if you're depending to get price structure and price discovery from mandatory price reporting."
According to Goggins, of the approximately 700,000 cattle slaughtered in the United States the week before the April 27 event, only 6,792 were reportable.
"The only place we have left for price discovery is local livestock auctions," said Goggins. "Where would the cow/calf producer be without his local auction to find out what his cattle are worth. Through open and competitive bidding, he's able to do that. However, the auction markets are in danger of extinction because they are price discoverers."